There’s always a lot of expert opinions on the Kentucky Derby, but have you ever seen a statistical analysis done to predict the outcome? StatJacks statisticians have performed an analysis of 120 key horses over 170 key races to derive power rankings leading up to Kentucky Derby.

The Power Rankings are used to determined the best horse on a 1 1/4 mile race, does not consider pace factors between horses or post positions. So here are the results!
 
Ranking Horse Post ML Jockey
1 Audible 5 8-1 J. Castellano
2 Hofburg 9 20-1 I. Ortiz Jr.
3 Magnum Moon 16 6-1 L. Saez
4 Justify 7 3-1 M. Smith
5 Good Magic 6 12-1 J. Ortiz
6 Solomini 17 30-1 F. Prat
7 Bolt d'Oro 11 8-1 V. Espinoza
8 My Boy Jack 10 20-1 K. Desormeaux
9 Noble Indy 19 30-1 F. Geroux
10 Combatant 20 50-1 R. Santana Jr.
11 Mendelssohn 14 5-1 R. Moore
12 Flameaway 4 30-1 J. Lezcano
13 Instilled Regard 15 50-1 D. Van Dyke
14 Free Drop Billy 2 30-1 R. Albarado
15 Enticed 12 30-1 J. Alvarado
16 Vino Rosso 18 12-1 J. Velazquez
17 Lone Sailor 8 50-1 J. Graham
18 Promises Fulfilled 3 30-1 C. Lanerie
19 Firenze Fire 1 50-1 P. Lopez
20 Bravazo 13 50-1 L. Contreras
StatJacks Power Rankings does not guarantee success, please gamble responsibly.